Super Guide to Super Tuesday — Democratic Edition

Like every other state in the Deep South, Alabama is likely to deliver a big win for Clinton. Nationwide, she has much greater support among African-American voters than Sanders does, and the majority of the electorate in Alabama will probably be African-American. Also, more of the state’s Democratic voters identified as “conservative” than “very liberal” in the 2008 primary, which is bad news for Sanders. The polls show this to be among his weakest states. There is one bit of decent news for Sanders, however: Clinton’s base of support looks a lot like Barack Obama’s did in 2008, and Alabama was one of Obama’s weaker states in the South that year. But Obama still won with 56 percent of the vote; Sanders would be lucky to keep Clinton under 60 percent.

1. White 44%
2. Black 51%
3. Hispanic/Latino 4%
4. Asian 0%
5. Other 1%

We have no real information on how American Samoa will vote. And while I don’t mean to diminish the importance of American Samoa’s caucuses, only six delegates are up for grabs there. Clinton won in 2008, 57 percent to 42 percent — at a caucus that drew a record number of voters, 285. Yes, you read that number correctly.

Arkansas has one of the whitest Democratic electorates in the South. That’s good for Sanders. But Clinton served as first lady of Arkansas for 12 years. That’s bad for Sanders. Most polls show Clinton winning, but by a somewhat smaller margin than the 40 percentage points she won by eight years ago.

1. White 80%
2. Black 17%
3. Hispanic/Latino 2%
4. Asian 0%
5. Other 1%

This is a state that Sanders almost certainly must win if he is to have any shot at the nomination. Although we don’t have entrance poll data for the 2008 Colorado caucuses — and so don’t have the breakdown by race of who voted then — the share of black residents in Colorado is about the same as in Iowa, where Sanders basically tied Clinton. Even if Clinton is winning among Hispanic voters, they make up a lower percentage of the population in Colorado than in Nevada — where Sanders also came pretty close to winning. Colorado, instead, has a lot of fairly liberal white voters who went against Clinton in heavy numbers in 2008. It’s also one of the states where Sanders has made a fairly heavy advertising investment.

This is another state in the Deep South where the majority of voters are likely to be African-American. Clinton has the backing of civil rights icon John Lewis, a long-time congressman, and other black leaders. Georgia’s primary was Obama’s best in 2008. That being said, the state’s Democratic electorate is far more liberal than Alabama’s next door because of the Atlanta area vote, which could be good for Sanders. Georgia is also a lot wealthier than Alabama, which could be bad for Sanders. Either way, it’s possible, based on the polling, that Clinton will hit the 66 percent mark set by Obama eight years ago.

1. White 43%
2. Black 51%
3. Hispanic/Latino 3%
4. Asian 1%
5. Other 2%

Sanders has to win here. The Democratic electorate is overwhelmingly liberal and overwhelmingly white, and Massachusetts is next door to his home state of Vermont. It also offers an interesting test of how determinative voter income is in the Democratic race. Remember, Sanders nearly lost wealthy Hanover, New Hampshire, even though it borders Vermont and is very liberal. There are a lot of wealthy, liberal suburbs around Boston — such as Concord — that Obama easily won in 2008. Will these suburbs vote for the more liberal candidate or the candidate who is less likely to tax them?

1. White 85%
2. Black 6%
3. Hispanic/Latino 5%
4. Asian 2%
5. Other 2%

Minnesota offers one of the best pickup opportunities for Sanders. Caucuses, like Minnesota’s, are generally more friendly than primaries to candidates who appeal to the liberal base. And while the caucuses eight years ago didn’t have any entrance poll data — and so we don’t have a breakdown by race of who voted then — less than 6 percent of the state is black. Minnesota voters didn’t like Clinton eight years ago when she won less than a third of the vote. Minnesota is also right next to Iowa, where Sanders nearly won. The polling has been sparse, but Minnesota is one of Sanders’s better states according to Facebook “likes.”

This is Sanders’s best chance to win a Southern state. Oklahoma has a lot of the lower-income, white voters with whom Sanders has excelled in early primaries. Although African-Americans were a small part of the 2008 electorate in Oklahoma (American Indians might have been a larger share), most of the polling this year has found Clinton with a small, though not insurmountable, advantage. The biggest complicating factor for Sanders is that Oklahoma Democrats are not very liberal. Like in Alabama, self-identified conservative Democrats outnumbered very liberal Democrats in the 2008 primary.

1. White 82%
2. Black 6%
3. Hispanic/Latino 4%
4. Asian 0%
5. Other 8%

Tennessee is less racially diverse than many other Southern states. Still, nearly a third of the Democratic electorate in 2008 was black. Also that year, conservative Democrats equaled very liberal Democrats. Those two facts combine to make Tennessee a tough state for Sanders. Indeed, they point to a larger problem for him. To make any sort of play in the South, Sanders would have to do well in the peripheral states, such as Arkansas, Oklahoma and Tennessee, where the black populations are relatively small. That Sanders isn’t polling closer to Clinton in Tennessee suggests that he will have a major problem in acquiring the delegates necessary to win the nomination.

1. White 67%
2. Black 29%
3. Hispanic/Latino 3%
4. Asian 1%
5. Other 1%

Another Southern state, another likely Clinton win — though her margin of victory may be smaller in Texas than elsewhere in the South. Texas has fewer black voters and a lot of white liberals around Austin, which could help Sanders. Still, black voters were a higher share of the Democratic electorate in Texas in 2008 than they have been this year in any state that has voted so far besides South Carolina. The Lone Star State will be an interesting test of how much Sanders has improved his standing among Hispanics. If it’s a lot, the contest in Texas may be closer than expected. If not, Clinton will probably win easily. One interesting side note: Although delegates are usually awarded proportionally on the state and congressional district level in Democratic contests, they will be awarded proportionally on the state and state Senate district level in Texas.

1. White 46%
2. Black 19%
3. Hispanic/Latino 32%
4. Asian 2%
5. Other 1%

The only question here is whether Clinton will hit 15 percent statewide; that’s the threshold she has to clear to win any delegates. If she doesn’t, it’ll be a delegate sweep for Sanders in his home state.

1. White 94%
2. Black 1%
3. Hispanic/Latino 3%
4. Asian 0%
5. Other 2%

Virginia is another Southern state where Clinton is likely to do well. Based on who voted in 2008, the electorate should be about 30 percent black, a smaller share than in some other Southern states, particularly those in the Deep South such as Alabama. That could limit Clinton’s margin in Virginia. Similar to areas just outside of Boston, the Washington suburbs should be a good test of which way wealthier liberal voters go. And the counties that border West Virginia will give us a clue as to how economically depressed areas of Appalachia that have conservative white residents will vote.

1. White 61%
2. Black 30%
3. Hispanic/Latino 5%
4. Asian 2%
5. Other 1%

The number of delegates up for grabs in each state and how they’re awarded, according to The Green Papers.

Each candidate’s support as of mid-day Monday, according to FiveThirtyEight’s weighted polling average.

Estimates, based on each state’s demographics, of what would happen in the state if the national vote were evenly divided between Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton.

Estimates, based on demographics and delegate rules in each state, of how many delegates Clinton and Sanders would need in each primary and caucus to win a simple majority of the 4,051 pledged delegates at the Democratic National Convention.

The amount a candidate’s campaign has raised in the state in itemized individual contributions, minus refunds, this election cycle through Jan. 31, according to the Federal Election Commission. Individuals’ contributions are itemized once they have given at least $200 to a candidate.

The racial makeup of the 2008 Democratic primary electorate, according to state exit polls conducted by Edison Research.