2015 Women’s World Cup Predictions

By Jay Boice and Allison McCann

FiveThirtyEight’s Women’s World Cup forecasting model uses our Women's Soccer Power Index (WSPI) — a system that combines game-based offensive and defensive ratings to estimate a team’s overall skill level — to calculate each country’s chances during the two stages of the World Cup. The probabilities, which are based on 20,000 simulations, will be updated at the end of each match. Read more: How our model works » | Tournament preview »

ARCHIVED FORECAST FROM Jun 2

The Group Stage

June 6-June 17

The first stage of the World Cup is a round-robin tournament, in which each team plays every other team in its four-team group. Both the winner and runner-up from each group automatically advance to the knockout stage of the tournament, as do the four best third-place teams.

A

ADVOUTHover on ateamforall possible outcomesHover on anoutcomefor theteam most likely to reach it1234CanadaNetherlandsChinaNew Zealand59.2%59.2%59.2%59.2%24.2%24.2%24.2%24.2%11.5%11.5%9.7%9.7%1.8%1.8%5.0%5.0%5.0%5.0%6.8%6.8%93.2%93.2%18.1%18.1%18.1%18.1%29.5%29.5%29.5%29.5%29.3%29.3%21.5%21.5%7.8%7.8%23.1%23.1%23.1%23.1%31.0%31.0%69.0%69.0%14.5%14.5%14.5%14.5%26.9%26.9%26.9%26.9%30.7%30.7%22.3%22.3%8.3%8.3%27.9%27.9%27.9%27.9%36.3%36.3%63.7%63.7%8.2%8.2%8.2%8.2%19.4%19.4%19.4%19.4%28.4%28.4%19.7%19.7%8.7%8.7%43.9%43.9%43.9%43.9%52.7%52.7%47.3%47.3%
Canada
wspi 90.1/100
expected goals in a competitive match
scored
2.4
conceded
0.7
game schedule
Canada's chances
DateOpponentWinLoseTie
June 6China61%18%21%
June 11New Zealand68%13%19%
June 15Netherlands58%20%22%
B

ADVOUTHover on ateamforall possible outcomesHover on anoutcomefor theteam most likely to reach it1234GermanyNorwayIvory CoastThailand83.4%83.4%83.4%83.4%15.9%15.9%15.9%15.9%0.7%0.7%0.6%0.6%0.1%0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.1%0.1%99.9%99.9%15.9%15.9%15.9%15.9%69.0%69.0%69.0%69.0%13.3%13.3%9.6%9.6%3.7%3.7%1.7%1.7%1.7%1.7%5.5%5.5%94.5%94.5%0.6%0.6%0.6%0.6%12.0%12.0%12.0%12.0%56.8%56.8%28.8%28.8%28.0%28.0%30.6%30.6%30.6%30.6%58.6%58.6%41.4%41.4%0.1%0.1%0.1%0.1%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%29.3%29.3%11.3%11.3%18.0%18.0%67.6%67.6%67.6%67.6%85.6%85.6%14.4%14.4%
Germany
wspi 95.6/100
expected goals in a competitive match
scored
3.8
conceded
0.4
game schedule
Germany's chances
DateOpponentWinLoseTie
June 7Ivory Coast93%<1%6%
June 11Norway70%12%18%
June 15Thailand95%<1%4%
C

ADVOUTHover on ateamforall possible outcomesHover on anoutcomefor theteam most likely to reach it1234JapanSwitzerlandCameroonEcuador79.3%79.3%79.3%79.3%16.9%16.9%16.9%16.9%3.6%3.6%3.4%3.4%0.3%0.3%0.2%0.2%0.2%0.2%0.4%0.4%99.6%99.6%14.5%14.5%14.5%14.5%49.5%49.5%49.5%49.5%30.9%30.9%23.4%23.4%7.5%7.5%5.1%5.1%5.1%5.1%12.6%12.6%87.4%87.4%6.1%6.1%6.1%6.1%30.6%30.6%30.6%30.6%50.4%50.4%34.8%34.8%15.7%15.7%12.8%12.8%12.8%12.8%28.5%28.5%71.5%71.5%0.1%0.1%0.1%0.1%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%15.0%15.0%6.5%6.5%8.5%8.5%81.9%81.9%81.9%81.9%90.4%90.4%9.6%9.6%
Japan
wspi 92.7/100
expected goals in a competitive match
scored
2.9
conceded
0.6
game schedule
Japan's chances
DateOpponentWinLoseTie
June 8Switzerland69%13%19%
June 12Cameroon78%7%15%
June 16Ecuador94%<1%5%
D

ADVOUTHover on ateamforall possible outcomesHover on anoutcomefor theteam most likely to reach it1234USASwedenAustraliaNigeria64.7%64.7%64.7%64.7%23.9%23.9%23.9%23.9%8.8%8.8%7.6%7.6%1.2%1.2%2.6%2.6%2.6%2.6%3.8%3.8%96.2%96.2%21.2%21.2%21.2%21.2%37.3%37.3%37.3%37.3%26.7%26.7%20.3%20.3%6.4%6.4%14.9%14.9%14.9%14.9%21.3%21.3%78.8%78.8%9.7%9.7%9.7%9.7%23.7%23.7%23.7%23.7%35.6%35.6%24.5%24.5%11.1%11.1%31.0%31.0%31.0%31.0%42.1%42.1%57.9%57.9%4.4%4.4%4.4%4.4%15.2%15.2%15.2%15.2%28.9%28.9%18.7%18.7%10.1%10.1%51.6%51.6%51.6%51.6%61.7%61.7%38.3%38.3%
USA
wspi 95.4/100
expected goals in a competitive match
scored
3.7
conceded
0.4
game schedule
USA's chances
DateOpponentWinLoseTie
June 8Australia68%13%19%
June 12Sweden58%20%22%
June 16Nigeria77%8%15%
E

ADVOUTHover on ateamforall possible outcomesHover on anoutcomefor theteam most likely to reach it1234BrazilSpainSouth KoreaCosta Rica70.0%70.0%70.0%70.0%21.7%21.7%21.7%21.7%7.2%7.2%6.3%6.3%0.9%0.9%1.2%1.2%1.2%1.2%2.0%2.0%98.0%98.0%15.0%15.0%15.0%15.0%36.8%36.8%36.8%36.8%34.8%34.8%25.5%25.5%9.3%9.3%13.4%13.4%13.4%13.4%22.7%22.7%77.3%77.3%13.8%13.8%13.8%13.8%34.5%34.5%34.5%34.5%37.3%37.3%27.0%27.0%10.4%10.4%14.3%14.3%14.3%14.3%24.7%24.7%75.3%75.3%1.2%1.2%1.2%1.2%7.1%7.1%7.1%7.1%20.6%20.6%11.5%11.5%9.1%9.1%71.1%71.1%71.1%71.1%80.2%80.2%19.8%19.8%
Brazil
wspi 92.2/100
expected goals in a competitive match
scored
2.8
conceded
0.6
game schedule
Brazil's chances
DateOpponentWinLoseTie
June 9South Korea65%15%20%
June 13Spain64%16%20%
June 17Costa Rica88%2%10%
F

ADVOUTHover on ateamforall possible outcomesHover on anoutcomefor theteam most likely to reach it1234FranceEnglandMexicoColombia60.2%60.2%60.2%60.2%29.1%29.1%29.1%29.1%8.8%8.8%7.6%7.6%1.3%1.3%1.9%1.9%1.9%1.9%3.2%3.2%96.8%96.8%31.6%31.6%31.6%31.6%43.7%43.7%43.7%43.7%18.3%18.3%14.2%14.2%4.0%4.0%6.5%6.5%6.5%6.5%10.5%10.5%89.5%89.5%5.5%5.5%5.5%5.5%16.9%16.9%16.9%16.9%40.5%40.5%25.8%25.8%14.7%14.7%37.2%37.2%37.2%37.2%51.9%51.9%48.1%48.1%2.8%2.8%2.8%2.8%10.4%10.4%10.4%10.4%32.4%32.4%19.2%19.2%13.1%13.1%54.5%54.5%54.5%54.5%67.6%67.6%32.4%32.4%
France
wspi 92.4/100
expected goals in a competitive match
scored
2.9
conceded
0.6
game schedule
France's chances
DateOpponentWinLoseTie
June 9England50%27%23%
June 13Colombia80%6%14%
June 17Mexico74%9%17%

The Knockout Stage

June 20-July 5

The second stage of the World Cup consists of four rounds of single-elimination games. The table below shows each team’s WSPI score, its chance of reaching each round of the knockout stage and its chance of winning the World Cup.

Design and development by Jay Boice and Allison McCann, Statistical model by Jay Boice and Nate Silver. Illustration by Kurt McRobert. Additional contributions by Aaron Bycoffe, Reuben Fischer-Baum and Ritchie King. Download this data.

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