FiveThirtyEight’s Women’s World Cup forecasting model uses our Women's Soccer Power Index (WSPI) — a system that combines game-based offensive and defensive ratings to estimate a team’s overall skill level — to calculate each country’s chances during the two stages of the World Cup. The probabilities, which are based on 20,000 simulations, will be updated at the end of each match. Read more: How our model works » | Tournament preview »
The first stage of the World Cup is a round-robin tournament, in which each team plays every other team in its four-team group. Both the winner and runner-up from each group automatically advance to the knockout stage of the tournament, as do the four best third-place teams.
scored | 2.4 |
conceded | 0.7 |
Canada's chances | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Win | Lose | Tie | ||
June 6 | China | 61% | 18% | 21% |
June 11 | New Zealand | 68% | 13% | 19% |
June 15 | Netherlands | 58% | 20% | 22% |
scored | 3.8 |
conceded | 0.4 |
Germany's chances | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Win | Lose | Tie | ||
June 7 | Ivory Coast | 93% | <1% | 6% |
June 11 | Norway | 70% | 12% | 18% |
June 15 | Thailand | 95% | <1% | 4% |
scored | 2.9 |
conceded | 0.6 |
Japan's chances | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Win | Lose | Tie | ||
June 8 | Switzerland | 69% | 13% | 19% |
June 12 | Cameroon | 78% | 7% | 15% |
June 16 | Ecuador | 94% | <1% | 5% |
scored | 3.7 |
conceded | 0.4 |
USA's chances | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Win | Lose | Tie | ||
June 8 | Australia | 68% | 13% | 19% |
June 12 | Sweden | 58% | 20% | 22% |
June 16 | Nigeria | 77% | 8% | 15% |
scored | 2.8 |
conceded | 0.6 |
Brazil's chances | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Win | Lose | Tie | ||
June 9 | South Korea | 65% | 15% | 20% |
June 13 | Spain | 64% | 16% | 20% |
June 17 | Costa Rica | 88% | 2% | 10% |
scored | 2.9 |
conceded | 0.6 |
France's chances | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Win | Lose | Tie | ||
June 9 | England | 50% | 27% | 23% |
June 13 | Colombia | 80% | 6% | 14% |
June 17 | Mexico | 74% | 9% | 17% |
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